At Home in Upland

You Dream Of Owning a Home. The Numbers Seem Scary. What to Believe and Why!

By Brad Rachielles

Buying or selling a home requires "due dilligence". You put in the work to understand the process, see what's available, give great thought to your wants and needs, inspect neighborhoods and have your financial situation buttoned down. More elusive is good information about Market Conditions. Not because the information is not available, It definitely is there, but selecting the right information, the data that applies to buying and selling LOCALLY can be confusing. Let's look at....

WHAT NUMBERS ARE AVAILABLE?

National or Statewide Statistics - The easiest numbers to find are in the National Press. While they may be accurate, they are often sensationalized to gain readership or gain viewers. Typical sources for this information are newspapers, TV, national real estate organizations, research firms, trade organizations (such as builders) and governmental offices.

These numbers do have value TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE. Economists can use these to determine the health of certain economic segments. Builders need this information to plan their production. Banks and lenders need to know how to deal with investments. Manufacturers need many of these numbers to plan possible expansion of facilities to meet future needs and plan for production, and Governmental Agencies need to know these numbers for budgets and social programs. If you are a national policy maker or supply the nation with goods or services these numbers are important.

It is unfortunate, but often the home buyer or seller sees these numbers and snaps to a wrong conclusion. These numbers generally have LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE TRULY LOCAL MARKET. Remember my friend from my first article? She heard that it is a buyers market from the National Press. In fact, the Local statistics show that there are 3.3 months of home inventory to sell.... defining a "SELLER'S MARKET". The selection of homes on the market is low because prices are still falling. Sellers are waiting for prices to climb unless they are distressed sales. Foreclosures have declined for a while so lenders can catch up with the paperwork. Even though interest rates are at historic lows and affordability indexes are high, buyers are not finding a wide choice of properties, want move-in-ready homes and are concerned with the prices declining too.

Local and Neighborhood Numbers - City, zip code and neighborhood sales numbers are where the supply and demand numbers really work. Recent home sale in a small area (comps) determine market values and pricing for buyers and sellers. While a little more work is required to find these numbers on your own, they can provide exactly what you need. THESE STATS ARE LOCAL and reflect what is happening exactly where YOU want to do business. National Numbers For National Decisions -- Local Numbers for Local Decisions.

 You Dream Of Owning a Home. The Numbers Seem Scary. What to Believe and Why! We now know to seek out local information and let the sensational numbers pass. My next post is titled "Buyers Need Good Local Numbers For Good Decisions. Why and Where to Get Them." Join me for this next valuable installment.